In recent weeks, international precious metal prices have shown a significant increase, attracting the attention of investors and analysts alikeOn December 9th, spot gold surged by approximately 40 dollars, while spot silver experienced a remarkable daily rise close to 4%. This upward trend has been attributed to various factors, including market dynamics and economic data influencing investor sentiment.

As of the latest updates, spot gold was reported at approximately $2,668 per ounce, marking its highest level since November 26. This surge captured the interest of market participants eager to discern its future trajectoryGold futures also saw a jump of around 40 dollars, reaching an impressive $2,697 per ounce, briefly surpassing the critical $2,700 threshold, signaling strong demand and investor confidence in the precious metal.

Meanwhile, spot silver reached $32.20 per ounce, its highest since November 7, reflecting a daily gain nearing 4% or about $1.25. This significant movement in silver prices has drawn attention, particularly as such increases were last observed on October 18.

On the futures market, silver showed a similar upward trend, escalating beyond 4% to reported values of $32.90 per ounce

The gold and silver markets in the early New York trading hours displayed notable gains, highlighting a robust demand for these metals as safe-haven assets.

Adding to this backdrop, the World Gold Council recently released a report indicating that central banks globally reported a net purchase of 60 tons of gold in November, setting a record for monthly acquisitions in 2023. Notably, the Reserve Bank of India led these purchases, increasing its gold reserves by 27 tons.

From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart suggests a prevailing demand for goldToday's trading outlook incorporates the possibility of a short-term retracement; however, prior to the U.SCPI data release on Tuesday and Wednesday, there may be an anticipated upward movementMarket participants are particularly focused on the CPI figures, commonly referred to as the "terrifying data," which could trigger fluctuations ranging from $50 to $70.

There is a prevailing expectation that the upcoming CPI data may prove bearish for gold

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In light of this, I have shared some trading logic with my partnersCoincidentally, I have started disseminating new fundamental information as we approach January, necessitating a swift clarification of our fundamental trading perspectives.

Currently, the U.Sdollar maintains its strength, yet gold has established a firm foothold above the $2,660 markThis positioning indicates the potential for continued upward movement in goldHowever, with relatively little market data slated for Tuesday, there exists a heightened risk of unexpected market shifts.

Such conditions may create opportunities for “black swan” events, particularly in light of the People's Bank of China's resumption of gold purchases after a six-month hiatusAdditionally, heightened expectations surrounding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, coupled with geopolitical instability in the Middle East following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, further bolster gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

The technical outlook on the gold daily chart reveals a possibility of reaching new highs

Observations from the four-hour chart suggest that significant resistance could lie in the $2,700 to $2,692 rangeYet, the primary focus remains on the forthcoming CPI data, a crucial indicator for future market directionShould the CPI data exceed anticipations, this could result in downward pressure on gold prices; conversely, any figures falling below expectations may bolster gold.

As we anticipate tomorrow’s inflation data, my expectations lean towards a negative impact on goldNevertheless, prior to this release, gold may experience a further anticipated rise—a key point for traders to monitor.

In my recent trading strategy, I suggested taking a bullish stance on gold at a price of $2,642. Subsequently, gold dipped to $2,634 but ultimately stabilized and proceeded to challenge the $2,676 markMy previous strategy included a short position initiated at $2,555, which successfully closed profits at $2,661, while the subsequent short position at $2,676 reached the short-term target of $2,663, witnessing a minimum touchpoint at $2,657.

The current market conditions indicate that gold is potentially on the brink of a new explosive breakout

However, the turbulence inherent in the market may lead to erratic fluctuations that can disorient traders.

For today’s trading approach, maintaining a primarily bullish stance on gold is advisableThere may be a brief retracement during the New York trading session ahead of tomorrow’s CPI announcement, creating an interesting juxtaposition for traders navigating these volatile waters.

Moving to the situation in Japan, the focus has shifted towards the Bank of Japan's upcoming decisions on interest ratesWhile the immediate decision on December 15 regarding rate hikes may not carry significant weight, the policy meeting scheduled for January 23-24, 2025, is of great importanceRecently, it was announced that the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, will deliver a speech on January 14 at a business leaders’ conference in Yokohama, followed by a press conference

This spectacle could catalyze short-term fluctuations in the dollar, especially if Japan opts to raise interest rates—an outcome that would benefit gold.

The Bank of Japan will hold its first monetary policy meeting of the year between January 23-24, 2025. The recent announcement of a preparation for this meeting is unprecedented, as the policy board has not conducted such pre-meeting activities since Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took office in 2013.

Long-standing conventions favored minimal communication before such significant meetingsFor over a decade, the only remarks from the Bank’s governor during the New Year gathering were brief, typically absent of substantive engagements with business leaders or press conferences.

This shift indicates a strategic repositioning by the Bank of Japan, highlighting a novel approach to enhancing communication about monetary policy

The scheduling of Amamiya's speech provides the institution with a platform to articulate its monetary policy thoughts, potentially indicating an intention to build market expectations ahead of the January meeting.

Currently, more than 80% of central bank watchers anticipate that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in JanuaryCriticism surrounding the Bank's previous communication failures, particularly leading up to the hike on July 31, has implied a need for improved consistency and clarity in approach to avoid exacerbating market volatility.

Former BOJ board member Sakurai Makoto criticized current governor Kazuo Ueda for not managing the situation effectively, advocating that the BOJ’s transition from excessive monetary easing to a more appropriate policy was not as straightforward as presented.

In summary, my outlook on the USD/JPY trajectory suggests potential continued upward movement